{"id":7039,"date":"2005-09-19T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2005-09-18T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/15.134.89.131\/archive\/2005\/09\/19\/%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e6%9c%ac%e5%91%a8%e9%9d%a2%e4%b8%b4%e5%a4%9a%e9%a1%b9%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%9b%a0%e7%b4%a0%ef%bc%8c%e8%b5%b0%e5%8a%bf%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e9%80%86%e8%bd%ac\/"},"modified":"2005-09-19T00:00:00","modified_gmt":"2005-09-18T16:00:00","slug":"%e7%be%8e%e5%85%83%e6%9c%ac%e5%91%a8%e9%9d%a2%e4%b8%b4%e5%a4%9a%e9%a1%b9%e9%a3%8e%e9%99%a9%e5%9b%a0%e7%b4%a0%ef%bc%8c%e8%b5%b0%e5%8a%bf%e5%8f%af%e8%83%bd%e9%80%86%e8%bd%ac","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/15.134.89.131\/archive\/?p=7039","title":{"rendered":"\u7f8e\u5143\u672c\u5468\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u9879\u98ce\u9669\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u8d70\u52bf\u53ef\u80fd\u9006\u8f6c"},"content":{"rendered":"

\ud83d\udc49 \u672c\u6587\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a<\/strong>\u9053\u743c\u65af<\/p>\n

\n     \u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5468\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u5176\u4ed6\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u7a33\u6b65\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u4f46\u7f8e\u5143\u672c\u5468\u53ef\u80fd\u9762\u4e34\u591a\u9879\u4e0d\u5229\u56e0\u7d20\uff0c\u5e76\u53ef\u80fd\u56e0\u6b64\u800c\u5f98\u5f8a\u4e0d\u524d\u6216\u6389\u5934\u5411\u4e0b\uff0c\u62b9\u53bb\u8fd1\u671f\u6da8\u5e45\u3002 <\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5176\u4e2d\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u8054\u90a6\u50a8\u5907\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(Fed)\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u7684\u5229\u7387\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5bf9\u5f53\u524d\u98ce\u9669\u72b6\u51b5\u7684\u8bc4\u8ff0\u5c06\u6700\u53d7\u6295\u8d44\u8005\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u4e0a\u5468\u65e5\u7684\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u4ee5\u53ca\u6b27\u5143\u533a\u5728\u672c\u5468\u665a\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u90e8\u5206\u91cd\u8981\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u4e5f\u5c06\u5907\u53d7\u5e02\u573a\u4eba\u58eb\u7684\u5173\u6ce8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4ee5\u4e0a\u6bcf\u4e00\u9879\u56e0\u7d20\u90fd\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u52a8\u6447\u7f8e\u5143\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u6da8\u52bf\u3002\u8fc7\u53bb\u51e0\u5468\u6765\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u5e02\u573a\u62c5\u5fc3\u98d3\u98ce\u5361\u7279\u91cc\u5a1c(Katrina)\u5bf9\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9020\u6210\u51b2\u51fb\uff0c\u4e14\u96be\u4ee5\u786e\u5b9aFed\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u7ef4\u6301\u8d27\u5e01\u7d27\u7f29\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u4f9d\u7136\u6b65\u6b65\u8d70\u9ad8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0a\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u6709\u5173\u5546\u54c1\u8d38\u6613\u3001\u7ecf\u5e38\u9879\u76ee\u4f59\u989d\u548c\u6d77\u5916\u8d44\u91d1\u8d2d\u4e70\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\u7684\u6700\u65b0\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u4f7f\u5e02\u573a\u91cd\u65b0\u5173\u6ce8\u8d77\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u8d64\u5b57\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u7f8e\u5143\u5e76\u672a\u56e0\u6b64\u906d\u53d7\u6253\u51fb\uff0c\u4f9d\u65e7\u7a33\u6b65\u4e0a\u884c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e8b\u5b9e\u4e0a\uff0c\u4e0a\u8ff0\u6240\u6709\u6570\u636e\u5747\u597d\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u9884\u671f\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4ece\u800c\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e0a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u6784\u6210\u652f\u6301\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd7\u6708\u4efd\u8d38\u6613\u9006\u5dee\u548c\u7b2c\u4e8c\u5b63\u5ea6\u7ecf\u5e38\u9879\u76ee\u8d64\u5b57\u53cc\u53cc\u5c0f\u5e45\u6536\u7a84\uff0c\u5206\u522b\u4e3a
\n579\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u548c1,957\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u8d22\u653f\u90e8(Treasury)\u516c\u5e03\u76847\u6708\u4efd\u56fd\u9645\u8d44\u672c\u6d41\u52a8\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u6d77\u5916\u6295\u8d44\u80057\u6708\u4efd\u25a1\u4e70\u5165874\u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u8bc1\u5238\uff0c\u4ece
\n\u800c\u4f7f\u7f8e\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u5f97\u4ee5\u7ee7\u7eed\u501f\u52a9\u6d77\u5916\u8d44\u91d1\u5f25\u8865\u56fd\u5185\u7ecf\u5e38\u9879\u76ee\u8d64\u5b57\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7ebd\u7ea6\u94f6\u884c(Bank of New York)\u7684\u9ad8\u7ea7\u5916\u6c47\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Michael Woolfolk\u79f0\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e0a\u5468\u6709\u60ca\u65e0\u9669\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8d70\u52bf\u6781\u4e3a\u5f3a\u52b2\u3002\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u76f8\u5bf9\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4e0a\u5468\u516c\u5e03\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6570\u636e\u672a\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u6784\u6210\u591a\u5c11\u4e0b\u884c\u538b\u529b\uff0c\u6216\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5e02\u573a\u4eba\u58eb\u89e3\u9664\u624b\u4e2d\u7684\u7f8e\u5143\u591a\u5934\u5934\u5bf8\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7ebd\u7ea6\u6c47\u5e02\u4e0a\u5468\u4e94\u5c3e\u76d8\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u51511.2235\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4ec5\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5468\u56db\u5c3e\u76d8\u76841.2223\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u4f46\u4f4e\u4e8e\u524d\u591c\u76d8\u4e2d\u9ad8\u70b91.2310\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u5151111.33
\n\u65e5\u5706\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5468\u56db\u5c3e\u76d8\u7684110.68\u65e5\u5706\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\u51511.2694\u745e\u58eb\u6cd5\u90ce\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5468\u56db\u5c3e\u76d8\u76841.2674\u745e\u58eb\u6cd5\u90ce\u3002\u82f1\u9551\u51511.8081\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5468\u56db\u5c3e\u76d8\u7684
\n1.8052\u745e\u58eb\u6cd5\u90ce\u3002\u6b27\u5143\u5151136.22\u65e5\u5706\uff0c\u9ad8\u4e8e\u5468\u56db\u5c3e\u76d8\u7684134.29\u65e5\u5706\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u8d70\u52bf\u81f3\u5173\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u56e0\u7d20\u662f\uff1aFed\u5468\u4e8c\u53d1\u8868\u7684\u5229\u7387\u58f0\u660e\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u5524\u8d77\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9Fed\u575a\u6301\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9884\u671f\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u8bc1\u5b9e\u5e02\u573a\u6709\u5173Fed\u5c06\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\uff0c\u4ee5\u5e94\u5bf9\u98d3\u98ce\u4e4b\u540e\u7684\u91cd\u5efa\u5de5\u4f5c\u53ca\u5168\u7403\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u6240\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u79cd\u79cd\u6311\u6218\u8fd9\u79cd\u731c\u6d4b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5e02\u573a\u73b0\u4ecd\u666e\u904d\u9884\u8ba1\u8054\u90a6\u516c\u5f00\u5e02\u573a\u59d4\u5458\u4f1a(FOMC)\u5c06\u5728\u5468\u4e8c\u7684\u4f1a\u8bae\u4e0a\u8fde\u7eed\u7b2c11\u6b21\u5c06\u57fa\u51c6\u5229\u7387\u4e0a\u8c0325\u4e2a\u57fa\u70b9\u3002\u4f46\u6b63\u5982\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u7687\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c(Royal
\nBank Of Scotland)\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u7814\u7a76\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6240\u6307\u51fa\u7684\u90a3\u6837\uff1a\u76ee\u524d\uff0c\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9Fed\u7ef4\u6301\u52a0\u606f\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u9884\u671f\u4ecd\u76f8\u5f53\u6e29\u548c\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u7687\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u5916\u6c47\u7b56\u7565\u5e08Adrian Schmidt\u548cPaul Robson\u5728\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u731c\u6d4bFed\u53ef\u80fd\u6682\u505c\u52a0\u606f\u5e76\u975e\u6beb\u65e0\u9053\u7406\uff0c\u4f46\u66f4\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u7684\u957f\u671f\u8d8b\u52bf\u4e0d\u4f1a\u56e0\u98d3\u98ce\u5361\u7279\u91cc\u5a1c\u800c\u53d1\u751f\u6539\u53d8\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u7f8e\u56fd\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u52bf\u4e0d\u51cf\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u4fdd\u6301\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u5347\u7684\u6b65\u4f10\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u82cf\u683c\u5170\u7687\u5bb6\u94f6\u884c\u7684\u4e0a\u8ff0\u5224\u65ad\u5728Fed\u5468\u4e8c\u7684\u58f0\u660e\u4e2d\u5f97\u5230\u8bc1\u5b9e\uff0c\u5219\u65e0\u7591\u5c06\u5bf9\u7f8e\u5143\u6784\u6210\u6709\u5229\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u867d\u7136\u77ed\u671f\u5185\uff0c\u53d7\u5fb7\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\u5151\u6b27\u5143\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u884c\u4e00\u5ea6\u5e45\u5ea6\u7684\u8c03\u6574\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u4e0e\u6b64\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u7531\u4e8e\u5e02\u573a\u5bf9\u5fb7\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u5fc3\u6001\u5bf9\u6b27\u5143\u4ea7\u751f\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u663e\u8457\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u5728\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u5468\u5185\u6301\u7eed\u4e0b\u8dcc\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u5fb7\u56fd\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u6c11\u4e3b\u8054\u76df(CDU)\u53ef\u80fd\u4ec5\u4f1a\u4ee5\u5fae\u5f31\u4f18\u52bf\u51fb\u8d25\u5fb7\u56fd\u603b\u7406\u65bd\u7f57\u5fb7(Gerhard Schroder)\u9886\u5bfc\u7684\u6267\u653f\u515a\u793e\u4f1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a(SDP)\u8d62\u5f97\u5927\u9009\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u5982\u679c\u6c11\u4f17\u652f\u6301\u7387\u4e0d\u76f8\u4e0a\u4e0b\uff0c\u5219\u5c06\u4ea7\u751f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7531\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u6c11\u4e3b\u8054\u76df\u548c\u793e\u4f1a\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4ee5\u53ca\u5176\u4ed6\u515a\u6d3e\u5171\u540c\u6267\u653f\u7684\u8054\u5408\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u5e02\u573a\u666e\u904d\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u5bf9\u5fb7\u56fd\u5fc5\u9700\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u6539\u9769\u4ea7\u751f\u4e0d\u5229\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u4f46\u90e8\u5206\u5916\u6c47\u89c2\u5bdf\u4eba\u58eb\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u60f3\u6cd5\u8fc7\u4e8e\u60b2\u89c2\uff0c\u5e76\u56e0\u6b64\u52a0\u5927\u4e86\u6b27\u5143\u8fd1\u671f\u7684\u629b\u552e\u538b\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000Scotia Capital\u9a7b\u591a\u4f26\u591a\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u573a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u5bb6Shaun Osborne\u79f0\uff0c\u6b27\u5143\u8fd1\u671f\u4ea4\u6295\u76f8\u5f53\u6d3b\u8dc3\uff0c\u5728\u4ed6\u770b\u6765\u5927\u91cf\u574f\u6d88\u606f\u5df2\u88ab\u6b27\u5143\u6d88\u5316\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4ed6\u9884\u8ba1\u5982\u679c\u5fb7\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u80fd\u591f\u8425\u9020\u76f8\u5bf9\u6709\u5229\u7684\u5e02\u573a\u73af\u5883\uff0c\u5219\u6b27\u5143\u6709\u671b\u5c0f\u5e45\u53cd\u5f39\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000Osborne\u9884\u8ba1\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u6c11\u4e3b\u8054\u76df\u80fd\u591f\u4fdd\u6301\u5927\u9009\u524d\u6c11\u610f\u8c03\u67e5\u6240\u53cd\u6620\u7684\u4f18\u52bf\uff0c\u5e76\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4e2d\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u5219\u6b27\u5143\u81f3\u5c11\u53ef\u80fd\u8fc5\u901f\u53cd\u5f39\u81f31.2350-1.2400\u7f8e\u5143\u4e00\u7ebf\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u3000\u7ebd\u7ea6\u94f6\u884c\u7684Woolfolk\u4e5f\u6301\u6709\u8fd9\u4e00\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u5e76\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5728\u6240\u6709\u4e3b\u8981\u8d27\u5e01\u4e2d\uff0c\u65e5\u5706\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u6c47\u7387\u7684\u4f4e\u4f30\u5e45\u5ea6\u6700\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3000\u30007\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\uff0c\u65e5\u5706\u5151\u7f8e\u5143\u8dcc\u81f3\u63a5\u8fd1114.00\u65e5\u5706\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u521b14\u4e2a\u6708\u4f4e\u70b9\u3002\u6b64\u540e\uff0c\u65e5\u5706\u9010\u6b65\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u4f46\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e24\u5468\u5185\uff0c\u65e5\u5706\u91cd\u65b0\u8d70\u8f6f\uff0c\u65e0\u89c6\u57fa\u672c\u9762\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u5229\u597d\u5f71\u54cd\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u5305\u62ec\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u5e38\u9879\u76ee\u987a\u5dee\u5e9e\u5927\uff1b\u6d77\u5916\u8d44\u91d1\u52a0\u901f\u6d41\u5165\u65e5\u672c\u6301\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u80a1\u5e02\u4ee5\u53ca\u6709\u8ff9\u8c61\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u7684\u56fd\u5185\u9700\u6c42\u51fa\u73b0\u597d\u8f6c\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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